Going Sideways, Not Up; Why NFTs Matter

Market Situation


We’re going sideways. Sure there was a rally, but we’re not gonna go higher than May.

Now boys and girls, as BTC goes sideways, what season is it?

“Alt season!”

That’s right, it’s alt season! Actually I almost forgot, until SecretsOfCrypto reminded me. He lays it out better than me so I advise you to check out his interpretation. Click the link for the entire thread. And follow him, he is a real OG and gives good advice.


This playbook is what happened the last bullrun. Nevertheless, things seem different this cycle. It does not seem to be the case anymore that the BTC value of an alt goes down as BTCUSD goes up – in fact, they mostly stay the same, and when BTCUSD goes down, the alts go down with it.

It used to be that BTC would pump and everything else would go down, and then the alts and ETH would start pumping; this bullrun, everything was pumping at the same time, and everything is going down at the same time.

I think this is because we now have crypto stablecoins (USDC, USDT, DAI…). Before, if you wanted to go into an alt, you went into through Bitcoin mostly, and there was no real way to lock your gains from the alt except by selling out into Bitcoin. Now, you can sell into stablecoins, and every proper exchange has a altUSDT pair. So it makes sense that alts are starting to behave more in sync with Bitcoin’s behaviour now.

This tweet is still 100% true though.

Am I an influencer? don’t follow anything I say, nothing here is financial advice!

Knowing all this, what can we do? Just keep finding promising projects who haven’t risen as much and DCA into them. It used to be that the name of the game is to accumulate BTC. Now, with stablecoins, BTC is just one of the many assets that you can try to accumulate through trading.

OK so most coins are up there in terms of USD. What if I have some BTC to invest? What are my options?

Just going from top to bottom on Coinmarketcap’s DeFi list. I only consider projects with a real argument for their existence.

SUSHIBTC – solid project, but this is not a “OMG deal” situation. More like “fair price”
SNXBTC – I don’t like the look of this graph, so no
COMPBTC – solid project, the first to introduce yield farming. “Fair price”, I’d say.
GRTBTC might not have hit the floor yet, but it’s looking good.
CRVBTC will blow up one day. Pretty good price if you ask me.
UMABTC it’s always bad to assume “this is the floor”. Nevertheless, looking good already.
RENBTC matching the previous ATL is always a good point, maybe don’t be too greedy and dip a toe in. Besides, REN’s renBTC product is actively being used.
LRCBTC graph looks similar to RENBTC but no zkRollups are production ready atm so I think it should be cheaper. Why does a Ethereum L2 zkRollup need its own coin anyway? Gotta look closer at the economics.
ALPHABTC I have heard of their product Alpha Homora, so I’d trust their project not to rugpull people in DeFi. However the price could look more attractive.
BANDBTC to be honest, this graph looks very good. It’s like Chainlink (oracles) but for Cosmos. Unlike LINK, though, nobody’s building DeFi on Cosmos, and DeFi projects are not looking at Cosmos. They’re looking at Fantom, Polygon, BSC, even Solana for the Rust die-hards. For the other Rust die-hards, HydraDX is on Polkadot and tooting their own horn. Why isn’t Cosmos selling itself to the DeFi community?
FILBTC Filecoin is a solid project, maybe later

New Things I Heard

Ethereum recently changed its economic policy through a hard fork. If you want to make a transaction on Ethereum, you have to pay a transaction fee (in ETH). Previously, this went to the miners. Now, part of it gets burnt/destroyed, increasing the scarcity of ETH. So far, it’s been working very well, 15000 ETH has been destroyed. The more people use Ethereum, the more valuable ETH will become.

A big chunk of these ETH transactions are because of Axie Infinity. There’s even ‘scholarships’ for Axie Infinity now. It’s huge in the Philippines, imagine earning a living by simply playing a game! Let’s have a look at AXS’s USD value.

I don’t care how popular the game is, I’m shorting that.

DSLA is a service level agreement payment resolver. Basically, most companies rely on other companies, and they have Service Level Agreements – the service should be up 99.9% of the time, or else free/rebates. Think Deutsche Bahn, if train arrives 30 minutes late, you get a refund. Turns out making refunds go out automatically when things go wrong is a major PITA, so how can we automate that with smart contracts on the blockchain?

Makes sense to me. Let’s take a look at the graph.

DSLAUSDT: not bad at all, although I probably shoulda got in earlier (I heard about this a week or two ago at EthCC)

There have been some rumblings about a thing called the metaverse. Remember the movie Ready Player One? People are thinking of creating a virtual universe just like that. VR provides the immersive experience, NFTs provide the provably unique in-game items, crypto transfers provide the money transfers between characters. You can do all this in a game, sure, but each game is still very much its own silo. The idea is for some interoperability to exist, such that you can bring certain things between worlds. All this is still very far away, but we’ll probably see this theme resurface now and then.

Losing Big, what to do.

Do you employ a formal procedure to cut your losses?

Not at all. In fact, if something goes wrong and I know what it is, but I think that the original thesis is valid, and that the damage is coming from an extraneous source, I am more likely to increase my position than to sell out. I need to know why I’m losing money.

Soros on Soros

Bonus: Why NFTs matter

click it and read the whole thing you lazy cunt

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