Quietly Making Money

(what did I say last week? institutions aren’t gonna prop up the price for us, we’re all going down… and we did go down!)

Hello dear subscribers,

It’s quiet now. Nobody’s coming up and asking me about crypto. No “what coin should I buy now” questions. Thank god. Who wants people who only show up when the going’s good?

We’re pros, after all. And the quiet time is when real wealth and real value is built.

Somebody in particular has been making a killing shorting coins.

Let’s see what is going on through his mind.

ADAUSDT shorted at 1.56

This guy is playing with huge money, so let’s assume he knows what he’s doing.

If so, then the one time where he could have shorted ADAUSDT at 1.56 was ~14 June. Everything before that is too uncertain.

DOGEUSDT shorted at 0.442310

If he entered this trade on 19 May, we could say he got lucky. A more rational trader would’ve entered on 4 June.

4 June: He shorted near the top of a little wave (a rally). He doesn’t always get it right at the top. In this case he was a bit late, in other cases a bit too early. But one can never know these things.

DOGE is a memecoin though so when it dumps it dumps hard. He’s already profiting 2x from this.

ETCUSDT shorted at 58.681

To me this looks like a dangerous trade, because after a period of quiet drifting down, the price can pump quite suddenly. In his case, it continued to go down and dumped even more on 21 June (on the day he posted that tweet).

So I’d say he got lucky on this one.

BTCUSDT short at 38831.62

Nobody can always hit the top so reliably, so my guess is: after seeing BTCUSDT peak around this level on 26-27 May, 4-5 June, he went in on 13 June. This went against him and for a while he was in danger (but not so much, remember the whole market is going down), but it went back down again.

BAKEUSDT short at 3.0133

There is no reason for him to have entered on 8 June. However, seeing it stay at that level, he probably bet it would go down on 12 June. Then it went against him.

Assuming everything went perfectly, for him, 18 June is the more rational entry point, once he saw the little rally from the 13th onwards didn’t have any strength.

Most likely institutional money: What individual has a million bucks to throw on a trade? Unless he’s trading for a firm.

Short term trader (in and out in a matter of weeks)

Goes with the overall zeitgeist: The big picture is, the market is going down. You go with the flow. So whenever it goes up, you bet that it’s going to go down.

Logs in every few days: This is generally bad for my mental health so I don’t do it (I tend to be more long term), but he makes a trade every few days (which further proves he’s a short term trader). Most likely he was quite active on 14 June.

Doesn’t short just because “it’s all going down”: he waits for either a local rally or a local price floor that he bets will be broken.

Conclusion

I never knew how to short before, so I never considered it. But now that I think about it, I’m starting to understand why shorting is great.

  1. Make money on the down and up!
  2. Bear markets usually last longer than bull markets
  3. Think of how many failed projects there are, compared to successful ones!

1 comment

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *